domingo, 13 de abril de 2008

Demanda de flujo y de stock

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Al proyectar la demanda, es necesario considerar que existen dos tipos de demanda que tienen comportamientos diferentes: a) la demanda de flujo y b) la demanda de stock. La demanda de flujo corresponde a la que generalmente consideran todos los evaluadores y corresponde a la tasa de crecimiento normal del mercado basado en estudios de regresión. La demanda de stock, pocas veces incluida en los estudios de proyectos, es de alta presencia e impacto en los proyectos de innovación tecnológica, donde el producto o servicio va a atender fuertemente a un mercado existente insatisfecho. Cuando aparecen las ventanas de aluminio, se vende inicialmente más a las viviendas existentes, donde era un desagrado pintar o barnizar todos los años las de madera o hierro, que a las nuevas construcciones. La adopción de esta innovación fue adoptada de una manera tal, que su curva de crecimiento inicial y decrecimiento posterior se asimiló al "ciclo de vida de un producto". Hoy, es posible pensar que, con los nuevos y cada vez más baratos métodos de implantes dentales, tendrá una fuerte demanda inicial (de todos quienes tenemos mala dentadura, cualquiera sea nuestra edad), pero es previsible que a futuro, cuando el stock haya cubierto sus necesidades, la demande baje para sólo atender a la población que se incorpore a este mercado. Es lo que pasó con la venta de ecógrafos en los establecimientos hospitalarios. Hoy sólo se venden por concepto de reemplazo, algunas ampliaciones y pocos nuevos establecimientos en cantidades inferiores a las históricas. Lo importante es considerarlo tanto para proyectar el flujo de caja como para anticipar en qué momento deberá tomarse la decisión de abandono o reducción.

74 comentarios:

Héctor Mario Rodríguez Pérez dijo...

Estimado Don Nassir:

Espero que haya pasado un buen fin de semanas junto a su familia, un fin de semanas que YA dio a notar que el VERANO se nos fue.

Respecto a su tema, me parece muy interesante lo que respecta a la "demanda de stock", y su comportamiento creciente en un principio debido a la fuerte demanda de un producto o servicio "X", para luego decrecer, asimilado al comportamiento de la VIDA de un producto (como usted bien dice)

Esta demanda nos puede dar, información de CUANDO INNOVAR o saber cuando darle un ATRIBUTO DIFERENCIADOR que satisfaga otras necesidades (o ir a la par con los cambio s tecnologicos por ejemplo) de manera de que la PORCIÓN de mercado a la cual CAUTIVAMOS, este nuevo ATRIBUTO le de un valor agregado a sus NECESIDADES y de esta forma CREAR un nuevo producto que satisfaga las necesidades de mi mercado meta "+1" de tal forma de reactivar el consumo y con ello el "CICLO" de la VIDA DEL PRODUCTO nuevamente.

Como evaluadores de proyecto tenemos que tener en cuenta estas OPCIONES y las medidas a tomar frente a ellas. En los escenarios posibles que se nos puedan presentar en el transcurso de nuestro proyecto. (aunque no muchos lo hacen)

Un abrazo.

Héctor.

Fernando Romero dijo...

Mi estimado Nassir

Recuerdo que en el seminario que dictaste en Guayaquil justamente tocaste este tema, e incluso me acuerdo de un ejemplo que pusiste, que había un banco que otorgaba créditos hipotecarios de más del 100% del valor de la vivienda, dirigido específicamente a matrimonios jóvenes donde ambos eran profesionales, porque justamente este banco apuntaba a los consumidores ya existentes, es decir, al "flujo"... creo que algo así fue el ejmplo.

A decir verdad, te capté la idea pero hasta hoy no la tengo tan clara; estos ejemplos que pones me ayudan un poco a aclarar el panorama. Creo que (y me corriges si me equivoco) la proyección de flujo es aplicable en proyectos de innovación, donde se apunta a crear un nuevo producto o servicio (bueno, en verdad se supone que todo proyecto es innovador, o al menos debería serlo); un proyecto por el cual yo creo una nueva necesidad y busco atraer a todos los consumidores existentes posibles.

Por poner un ejemplo: si mi proyecto es crear una empresa que se dedique a la comercializacion de discos blue-ray, buscaré atraer a todos los consumidores actuales de DVD (flujo) para crearles una necesidad de tener mayor capacidad de almacenamiento... en cambio, si creo una empresa que comercialice disketes o casetes, solo podré hacer una proyección basada en los futuros consumidores (stock), probablemente niños que en la primaria recién les estén enseñando qué es un computador.

Espero que ahora pueda yo tener una idea más clara de estas definiciones. Un abrazo.
Fernando Romero M.

PD: te recomiendo que veas el show de Andrés López y su pelota de letras... ahí se explica las diferentes edades o generaciones del ser humano.

Fernando Romero dijo...

Increíble!!! Héctor me ganó por solo un minuto!!! Saludos Héctor...

Héctor Mario Rodríguez Pérez dijo...

JAJAAJAJAJA lo siento Fernando...

Saludos!

Nassir Sapag Chain dijo...

Mis estimados amigos Héctor y Fernando....estaba esperando sus comentarios para ir a acostarme....claro que la apuesta a mi señora es que a lo menos de ustedes dos iba a comentar esta misma noche....la verdad, me halaga saber que tengo lectores de tan alto nivel y de una fidelidad que no creo merecer.
Héctor...ya te lo he dicho antes...ojalá muchos tuvieran la capacidad de ver estas situaciones antes. Como muy bien me complementas(y gracias porque no había considerado ese efecto en mi posteo) es muy importante que se anticipen correcciones al producto y no sólo, como digo, se vea el momento del abandono. Tú confirmas uno de mis continuos mensajes que trato de transmitir: la identificación de opciones para mejorar la calidad de la inversión.
Fernando....son dos demandas que se deben sumar, por ejemplo, para Siemmens más importante que el aumento de hospitales (flujo) considera que los equipos médicos que crea van a ser demandados por los ya existentes. En algunos casos primará la demanda de flujo, pero como la mayoría de las veces nos llaman a evaluar proyectos de innovación, la demanda de stock pasa a ser más importante. En todo caso, ambas deben sumarse.
Un fuerte abrazo a ambos

Nassir Sapag Chain dijo...

Fernando ¿dónde veo el show de Andrés Lopez? ¿es un programa en TV de Guayaquil o está en internet?

Oscar Cárdenas Maulén dijo...

Estimado Nassir, agrego a Hector y Fernando, en este nuevo post de conocimiento,..
La verdad es que la evaluación de un nuevo proyecto que se incerta en el mercado y visto de esta forma, es una unidad económica que se relaciona con su medio "El mercado" y esta relación con su entorno tiene repercuciones en el flujo de caja o bien en la imagen de la empresa, como hablamos hoy de las RSE.
Si el evaluador es consiente de la inserción de un nuevo producto que altera la forma de ofrecer servicios o productos al consumidor, también es preciso analizar su comportamiento, comportamiento que alterado por la obtencion de un nuevo producto mas duradero o con menos ocurrencia de desperfectos, que al final desencadena en un futuro próximo no vender una gran cantidad de estos mismos ya que no fallan tanto, entre otras cosas. Otro análisis en ver a quién se vende, por un lado los que lo hacen por primera vez contra los que buscando un mejor producto reemplazan el antiguo.
Si bien nos complica este análisis, obviamente siendo consiente de la complejidad de los análisis de mercado sin dejar nada al azar, por supuesto, veremos que hay situaciones especiales como "LAS HERRAMIENTAS OFRECIDAS POR SNAP-ON QUE TIENEN GARANTIA DE POR VIDA".En donde se cree que su mercado es más preciso y cauteloso.
El proyecto es complejo cuando anañlizamos todos y cada uno de sus detalles, pero en su ejecución debemos controlar su comportamiento y si la proyeccion de ventas fue afectada por la demanda, para luego tender a las "ESTRATEGIAS CORRECTIVAS" considerando alteraciones en el consumidor. Que es bien seguro tiene su efecto en los tipos de demanda de flujo o de stock amban dignas de un seguimiento por toda la vida del proyecto.
Atte.
Oscar CARDENAS M.

Fernando Romero dijo...

Andrés López es un comediante colombiano, su show está disponible en DVD y también hace presentaciones en vivo, puedes ver su página oficial: http://www.glfventure.com/andreslopez/

Nassir Sapag Chain dijo...

Gracias Oscar...sólo faltabas tú. ¡Qué excelente grupo de comentaristas!
Efectivamente, las dos demandas deben considerarse siempre. Cuando la de stock muestra que va a decrecer, debemos estudiar la conveniencia del abandono o el cambio en el producto o uno de sus atributos, para generar una nueva demanda. Es lo encontramos hoy con los celulares. Aparace un modelo y nadie piensa que va a venderlo "toda la vida".

Nassir Sapag Chain dijo...

Gracias Fernando
Veo ahora la página, pero lo compro en mayo.

ERICK dijo...

Lo saludo cordialmente desde Bolivia.

Soy un estudiante de Ingeniería Industrial de la UMSS (Cochabamba).

Que grato encontrarlo en la red y facilitar la comunicación con una eminencia como Ud. Siempre presente en mi carrera académica

Será que Gauss experimentó tales situaciones?, yo creo que si.

Muy refrescante la información que escribe, lo felicito por el blog

Hasta otra oportunidad.

Un abrazo

Erick Pacheco F.

Nassir Sapag Chain dijo...

Muchas gracias Erick
Para mí es un gusto que tú participes de este blog. Espero sinceramente que te sea de utilidad....y bienvenido. Un abrazo

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